How I think about: Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a fundamental feature of both the world and the organisations we operate in, yet we are naturally inclined to resist it. We seek control through planning, analysis, and prediction, often underestimating how limited that control really is. In practice, uncertainty takes multiple forms, from gaps in knowledge (epistemic) to irreducible randomness (aleatory), as well as differences in understanding (ontological) and meaning (semantic). Treating all uncertainty as something that can simply be “reduced” leads to wasted effort and poor decisions. Instead, effective organisations learn to recognise the type of uncertainty they are dealing with, assess whether it is worth reducing, and invest accordingly. Just as importantly, they build the capability to operate under uncertainty by improving adaptability, decision-making, and systemic resilience. Rather than attempting to eliminate uncertainty entirely, the goal is to understand it, manage it, and where possible, use it to uncover opportunities.